EconomiaNacionales

Deuda: tras el canje con el sector público, quedarían $1,4 billones de privados para octubre

4 octubre, 2023
1 2 minuto para leer

En el primer llamado a licitación del próximo 12 quedarían $600.000 millones. En el mes de las elecciones hay un fuerte incremento de la incertidumbre. En el mercado advierten sobre una caída de los precios y miran al Banco Central. Tras el canje de deuda en pesos para agencias del sector público que encaró el Ministerio de Economía la semana pasada, la mayoría de lo que quedó por vencer este año está en manos de inversores privados. La operación de conversión por bonos que vencen en 2026 sumó $616.000 millones, según datos oficiales. Entre los privados estiman que para octubre restan compromisos por $1,4 billones, de los cuales, en el primer llamado a licitación del 12 de este mes quedarían $600.000 millones.

Todo ello representa un nuevo desafío en un contexto de alta volatilidad en la medida en que se aproxima la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales. En el mercado se habla de un incremento del nerviosismo. Tal vez, la posibilidad de que Javier Milei figure como potencial ganador el 22 de este mes esté generando gran inquietud sobre la curva de pesos.
“Sobre este último tipo de activos, el debate de la dolarización habría calado hondo. Hubo un incremento de rendimientos en bonos cortos con una magnitud y velocidad comparables con las del derrumbe de la curva a mediados de 2022”, señala GMA Capital en su último reporte, en el cual señala que “las paridades de los títulos largos se derritieron hasta la zona de 70%”.
Un administrador de carteras relativizó la idea de que haya un escenario como el de junio de 2022. En ese momento había pegado fuerte la idea de que en caso de un cambio de gobierno habría un reperfilamiento de vencimiento de la deuda en pesos lo que provocó una corrida. “No se está en esos niveles”, señaló un operador, quien no obstante considera que hay una situación riesgosa y la vincula con las intervenciones del Banco Central.
Lo que estaría ocurriendo, explicó, es que tras las licitaciones que lleva a cabo la Tesorería, el BCRA suma 200 puntos básicos de rendimiento sobre los valores de mercado con sus intervenciones. Eso estaría provocando que los precios vayan para abajo y que la potencial demanda genuina desde inversores privados quede retraída a la espera de que en la siguiente ronda la entidad convalide un rendimiento superior a la anterior. “Creemos que esto se podría cortar si el BCRA pone un piso”, dijo una fuente del mercado. Durante la jornada circuló la versión de que el Central habría intervenido fuerte para sostener las paridades. Serían unos $200.000 millones.Frente a ello, el jueves 12 Economía tiene que salir a buscar unos $600.000 millones y el 27 otros $800.000, aunque todavía al Palacio de Hacienda le hace falta cerrar el número fino. Muchos de los bonos que quedan son con cláusula de ajuste y por lo tanto su valor se define casi al momento. Luego en noviembre quedarían otros $1,1 billones y en diciembre apenas unos $70.000 millones. Hay que tener en cuenta las colocaciones de muy corto plazo que se llevan a cabo en cada llamado destinadas a los fondos comunes.

Adcap Grupo Financiero señala que los bonos en pesos operan en “niveles de distress, con la curva totalmente invertida”. “La semana pasada siguieron los rescates netos en los fondos CER, dólar linked y T+1. Hay una migración de flujos hacia posiciones conservadoras”, dice en su último informe. El reporte indica que “la situación de estrés del mercado es controlada por el BCRA, que esta vez está interviniendo”.

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4 octubre, 2023
1 2 minuto para leer
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